The scene: A room at 221b Baker Street...
I say Holmes, what do you make of that whole VTEC thing? Pretty bullish of them to take so many hits on the nose?
But Watson, did you not notice the significance of Stagecoach’s reference in their market statement to Independent Economic Regulation?
Can't say I did Holmes, in fact I'm not even sure I saw the ORR mentioned at all.
That, Watson, is the significance.
This from E. L. Bowe...
Stagecoach's apparent sang froid in the face of the Virgin Trains East Coast losses is easily explained - they have been here before.
An infrastructure owner fails to deliver upgrades vital to an ambitious intercity franchise plan?
Sounds familiar? Of course, it's the West Coast Route Modernisation debacle all over again.
True, Stagecoach and Virgin don't have the nuclear option of the WCML PUG2 contract which could have holed Network Rail below the waterline, but that's not needed when Network Rail is on the job, with vital capacity schemes like freight loops, Werrington grade separation and Woodwalton four tracking are sliding to the right and are now well into the second half of CP6 .
We'll know it really is groundhog day when Mr Kipling is recalled to descope the scheme and devise a rescue timetable.
This from StockMarketWire.com...
Stagecoach Group and Virgin Group are joining forces with France high speed operator SNCF to bid for the West Coast Partnership rail franchise.
The government has announced that the West Coast Partnership franchise would run from 2019.
It would include current West Coast services and the first few years of operation of High Speed 2 (HS2) services.
Stagecoach had a 50% share in the bid vehicle, West Coast Partnership Ltd, with a 30% share held by SNCF and the remaining 20% owned by Virgin.
"It is envisaged that services under a successful bid would carry the Virgin brand," the companies said in a statement.
This from the DfT, in what is a remarkably scrappy press release...
This from Ithuriel...
In an article in the Sunday Express, Stagecoach CEO, Martin Griffiths, launched his Chairmanship of the RDG (What that? Ed) with a fighting article headed: 'Railways are still on track'.
No, it wasn't a riposte to busway conversions, but a paen to the newly nationalised railway (Shurely 'triumph of Privatisation'? Ed)
Martin showed his Finance Director background with this statistical claim:
"Train companies last year switched from being net recipients of Government support to net contributors. Overall industry subsidy per journey is lower than or the same as in six of the 12 years leading up to privatisation."
Good news indeed!
But what's this?
Note that Mr Griffiths is comparing 'now' (after 20 years of privatisation) with 12 years then, conveniently ignoring the post Railtrack years when subsidy was indeed four to five times BR at its best (Where is this going? Ed).
Griffith's comparison is also based on passenger journeys not passenger kilometers.
Since Clapham Junction to Waterloo and Kings Cross to Aberdeen are both 'journeys', the average cost measure is meaningless (Got you! Ed).
So what about comparing cost per passenger kilometre?
In 1982, before the revival of BR's fortunes under Sir Bob Reid, the subsidy per passenger kilometre at today's prices was 8.1p.
In 2006-07, when subsidy peaked at £6.3 billion - three times BR's 1982 subsidy, this equated to 15.8 p per passenger km!
Nice try. But sadly, no cigar!
Update: This from The Horn of Plenty...
Shurely it was Sir Robert Reid who revived BR's fortunes, paving the way for Shell's Sir Bob later?
On a more serious point, do we honestly think that we were at a sustainable level of spend in 1982, the era before Clapham, Hidden, Hatfield, DDA, Interoperability, Climate Change Levy, Pension Protection Levy, TPWS, GSMR, etc...?
Hopefully we are now where Sir Robert may have wished us to be, with the Government treating:
"... the network according to its importance to the nation rather than its financial value..."
Where "...safety must be 'top of the agenda': the only answer [is] high standards, efficient systems and constant vigilance."
Does anyone on today's railway really believe that our old nationalised industry could have delivered this?
Compare and contrast...
80% - the decline in Virgin Rail profits due to the ICWC shambles
90% - the Stagecoach share in the new joint venture with Virgin bidding for ICEC
Fancy.
Much Sunday morning spluttering of cornflakes, courtesy of the Telegraph's business section.
In an interview Martin Griffiths, the soon to be Stagecoach supremo, offered the following terse observations on the railway:
HS2 - 'in the wrong place'.
Waterloo throat - 'knackered'
Railways - 'a middle class thing'.
Whilst items one and two will no doubt be causing palpitations in Whitehall, item three should at least endear Stagecoach to ministers.
After all it is only nineteen months since millionaire Philip Hammond, then Secretary of State for Transport, decreed that trains were 'a rich man's toy'!
Good to see that the Deep Alliance is at least delivering a marginally more inclusive railway...
So, Sir Brian Souter will be a guest on BBC Question Time tomorrow night.
Expect some fireworks in light of recent House of Commons' business, as in the past Sir Brian has had some clear views on promoting what were once termed 'alternative' lifestyles.
No matter.
Thursday's telefest may be the Wee Man's last high profile public outing, ahem, before he becomes Stagecoach Group's chairman in May, relinquishing the role of chief executive to the now
ubiquitous Martin Griffiths (currently finance director).
Despite Brian's interesting history with matters 'equality' don't expect too much criticism from Humza Yousaf the MSP member of the panel. In the devolved world of Scottish politics Our Brian has proven a generous benefactor to the Scottish National Party over recent years.
No doubt First's Tim O'Toole, which currently holds the ScotRail franchise, will be watching with interest?
Stagecoach also said its chief executive Brian Souter would stand down and become the company's chairman in May 2013, replacing George Mathewson who is retiring. Martin Griffiths, the company's finance director, will take over as chief executive, the company said.
So. Multimillionaire Sir Brian Souter has decided to shuffle his pack.
The former Perth clippy has chosen a former Guildford guard to run one of the UK's highest profile franchises during HMQ's Diamond Jubilee and the Olympics.
Noted.
Tim Shoveller, currently MD of sister franchise EMT, will take up the reins at SWT on the 2nd January 2012 - evidently Stagecoach know how to party.
Meanwhile, in an elegant piece of succession planning, David Horne, EMT's Commercial Director, steps up to the MD's role.
The Former Clippy said:
“I am delighted Tim and David will be leading the teams at South West Trains and East Midlands Trains. They are both amongst the very best managers in the UK rail industry and these appointments show the depth of management talent we have right across our businesses.”
Eye cannot resist: Ooh! Mr Horne. Bona!
UPDATE: This from Sinoda...
Reference Eye's quip "Ooh Mr. Horne - Bona"!
Something tells me that despite Julian and Sandy being great big butch 'omies, 'the former Perth clippy' might not have been a fan.
Telegrammed by Ithuriel
More bad news for the Department for Transport
Having failed to get any money out of the ROSCOs, DfT Rail has now lost its challenge to SWT's cap & collar claim at arbitration.
Still at least they didn't go to court, saving a few millions in legal costs.
How long before someone takes responsibility for these bad judgments and resigns? (Presume this is rhetorical question - Ed)
Telegrammed by Bulldog Drummond...
Nick Hassell in his Times Tempus column today does quite a good job analysing Stagecoach's recent (fairly creditable) performance.
But he ends up talking, as most analysts do, of upcoming sector consolidation.
Have any of these deep thinking hacks paused for a moment to think what the Competition Commission response will be?
The Government contracted passenger transport industry is already reduced to a handful of serious players.
Any fewer and CoCo will, rightly, see huge conflicts of interest.
What buses and railways want are more varied and interesting players rather than the present narrow field dominated by European nationalised railways and Scottish bus bandits.
This from TransportXtra...
Former National Express Group chief executive Phil White is to join Stagecoach's board as a non-executive director.
Souter circling NatEx?
This from The Times...
National Express, the struggling transport group, has walked away from a last-gasp merger with rival Stagecoach over concerns that competition regulators could derail a deal.
State operator 'East Coast Mainline' is expected to take on the NXEC franchise at the December Timetable change.
This from the BBC...
Scottish transport tycoons Brian Souter and Ann Gloag are alleged to have been stung by a prominent City financier who has apparently disappeared.
Stop sniggering at the back!
Looks like the credit crunch is starting to bite at Stagecoach.
Poor Brian Souter is not just re-using carrier bags; now he's stopped using razor blades as well.
Or could it be a case of "beard today, gone tomorrow?"
UPDATE: This from an RSSB reader...
Quick word of thanks for your blog, it certainly livens up the day here.
A friend in ‘beleaguered’ TOC, NXEC, sent me this from the Gruaniad which Eye picked up from the Suffolk Evening Star.
Perhaps the red shoe wearing hairy one is actually a Hirsute-Heir...
Good news for East Midlands Trains passengers!
This from the Independent...
Some rail passengers will have to fork out for fare rises of up to 145 per cent from next week.
The East Midlands Trains company is making alterations to some of its Travelcard tickets which will affect passengers travelling in the morning from Market Harborough, Kettering and Wellingborough to London.
Presumably Stagecoach supremo Brian Souter needs all the pennies he can get if he is to buy the rail and bus businesses of the doomed National Express Group.
Meanwhile, don't expect DafT to kick up a fuss over EMT's swinging fare increases.
If Souter can raise the necessary gee-gaws to buy C2C and NXEA it will save DafT the public humiliation of testing Cross Default in court.
Happy days!
Posts
